Could Hurricane Isaac Wreak Havoc For Republican Convention In Florida?

With the centuries-old struggle that the descendants of Ishmael have been waging against the descendants of Isaac, I thought it interesting that of all the named storms of the 2012 hurricane season that had the potential to disrupt the plans of those politicking for America’s future, it had to be “Isaac” — notwithstanding the fact that Israel is, as we speak, considering a storm of its own for its own future survival before the US elections in November …

By Jason Samenow, Washington Post – “For three straight simulations, NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model has tracked a tropical system right over the Florida peninsula through or close to Tampa just as the Republican National Convention is ramping up. Assuming this system – presently a little swirl in the open Atlantic – strengthens some, it will be named Isaac.

Before anyone gets alarmed or excited, consider forecasts of the path and intensity of tropical systems this far out have essentially no skill. As our tropical weather specialist Brian McNoldy said earlier: ‘In the 5-7 day period and beyond, weather details become fairly unpredictable.’

If this model defeats the long odds against it and is somehow right, organizers say they’re ready for the possibility of a hurricane Isaac during the convention according to a report from ABC News:

The Republican National Convention, Secret Service and federal, state and local authorities have been planning for a “multitude” of hurricane scenarios for “well over a year,” said Bryan Koon, Florida’s emergency management director. RNC spokesman James Davis would not give details of those plans, saying only that they are “focused completely on having a great convention.”

Since 1852, the Tampa area been hit by 27 hurricanes including 6 during the month of August the ABC News report said.

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has developed a tool that shows the historic probability of a named storm affecting the region around Tampa is 20 percent in any given season. The odds of a direct hit near Tampa is around 3 percent.

Jeff Masters of wunderground, who wrote a detailed blog post on the risk of a storm hitting Tampa during the convention, says the risk of a highly disruptive the storm that would trigger evacuations during the convention itself is smaller:

‘[H]istory suggests that the odds of a mass evacuation order being given during the 4-day period that the Republican National Convention is in town are probably around 0.2%,’ he wrote.

But if powerful hurricane did strike the Tampa Bay region – either during the convention or some other time – the effects could be devastating.” Read more.